POLL: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 10 points among Michigan voters

With the major party presidential conventions now behind them, candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are in a tug-of-war fight on the campaign trail. Here in Michigan, Republican nominee Trump has his work cut out for him.

If the election were held today, a brand new EPIC MRA Poll of eligible Michigan voters shows Democrat Clinton would win the race by 10 points, 46% to 36% with 17% undecided.

The survey, released first to WXYZ/Channel 7, the Detroit Free Press and our statewide media partners in Lansing, Flint and Grand Rapids, sampled 600 respondents.

The poll also matched the major political party candidates against Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. In that 4-way contest, Clinton leads by 11 points (43%) compared to Trump at 32%, as well as Johnson and Stein at 8% and 3%, respectively.

Bernie Porn, President of Lansing-based EPIC MRA summed up the race this way, “With former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton currently enjoying a double-digit lead, New York businessman Donald Trump has a lot of ground to make up. If this trend continues after Labor Day, then the numbers will become even more important and potentially devastating.” Trump is winning among independent men in Michigan; Clinton does the best among independent women.

In what has been a non-typical presidential campaign, Michiganders dislike Trump and Clinton more than they like them. Sixty-three percent give Trump an unfavorable rating, 30% give him a thumbs up. Clinton gets a 51% unfavorable rating, 41% approve of her.

Our statewide poll also asked likely November voters if they thought Michigan’s economy was improving. Fifty-five percent said yes, which closely resembled their thoughts in our March survey. Governor Rick Snyder’s job disapproval rate still lingers around 66%, improved just slightly from a dismal 69% in our spring 2016 poll. Only 32% believe he is doing a good job. And finally, the job rating for President Barack Obama is 52% negative and 47% positive.

The latest EPIC MRA survey was conducted July 30 – August 4 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0%.

Poll questions and responses:

Overall, would you say that things in the country are generally headed in the right direction, or, have things pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?

30% Right direction
60% Wrong track
10% Undecided/Refused

Now, I would like to read the names of political figures.  For each one, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. The first name is _______? “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person.

Barack Obama
Total Favorable: 52%
Total Unfavorable: 44%

Rick Snyder
Total Favorable: 38%
Total Unfavorable: 49%

Hillary Clinton
Total Favorable: 41%
Total Unfavorable: 51%

Donald Trump
Total Favorable: 30%
Total Unfavorable: 63%

Jill Stein
Total Favorable: 11%
Total Unfavorable: 8%

Gary Johnson
Total Favorable: 13%
Total Unfavorable: 8%

Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Barack Obama as President – would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

47% TOTAL POSITIVE
52% TOTAL NEGATIVE

Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Rick Snyder as Michigan’s Governor – would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

32% TOTAL POSITIVE
66% TOTAL NEGATIVE

Thinking about the economy in Michigan, do you believe Michigan’s economy…

55% Is now improving
29% Has bottomed out but has not yet started to get better
10% Has not yet bottomed out and will still get worse
  6% Undecided/Refused

If the election were held today, and the candidates were Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican or Hillary Clinton the Democrat? 

46% TOTAL CLINTON
36%  TOTAL TRUMP

If the election were held today, and the candidates were Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican, Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Gary Johnson the Libertarian candidate, or Jill Stein the Green Party candidate? 

43%  TOTAL CLINTON
32% TOTAL TRUMP
8% TOTAL JOHNSON
3% TOTAL STEIN

Based on your personal experience or what you know or have heard or read, do you support or oppose the efforts of the Tea Party movement?

26% TOTAL SUPPORT
43% TOTAL OPPOSE

Do you think of yourself as pro-choice, meaning that you support allowing women to have the
right to an abortion, or do you consider yourself pro-life, meaning that you oppose abortions, except when it is necessary to save the life of the mother?

52% Pro-choice – women have the right to an abortion   
41% Pro-life – against abortions except to save life of mother

Would you describe yourself as a conservative, a moderate or a liberal?

38% Conservative
33% Moderate
20% Liberal
  9% Undecided/Refused

Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican or a Democrat?

43% TOTAL DEMOCRAT
37% TOTAL REPUBLICAN