This storm is eerily similar to the midweek storm we experienced the first week of February. Just like the previous storm - this one will start off with milder temps and rain before changing over to snow. This creates some uncertainty in the impacts and timing but we can share what we know.
When it comes to winter storm forecasting we are within the 4 - 5 day threshold. At this stage we look at patterns and consistency in the models to make a judgment call on the forecast.
What the data says
This storm is expected to start as rain Wednesday night before changing over to all snow by Thursday afternoon. The timing of this change over is uncertain and will impact the snow forecast greatly. What we can say with some degree of confidence is that Thursday and Friday morning will see the greatest impacts from this storm based on the latest track.
Snow is not the only threat
Even though snow amounts and snow maps grab all the headlines, this storm could bring a threat for ice and sleet as well.
The graphic above shows that dangerous amounts of ice are possible somewhere in southwestern Ontario and southeastern Lower Michigan. As you know, it doesn't take much ice and sleet to cause issues so this will be something to follow as well. Look for more updates in the coming days as we get closer.
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